Mineral Forecasting

Teams are challenged to develop a comprehensive data analytics solution that analyzes India's Export-Import (EXIM) data for Copper, Lithium, and Graphite to support strategic decision-making and enhance mineral security. Core Objectives: EXIM Data Analysis: Analyze historical trade data for India's 30 critical minerals using data from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S) Identify import-export patterns, trade volumes, values, and key trading partners Assess India's dependency ratios for each critical mineral. Examine trade balance trends and their economic implications. Apply ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) to compare trade performance across different mineral categories, time periods, or trading partners. Trend Analysis: Conduct a temporal analysis of critical mineral trade flows from 2017-18 to the present. Identify seasonal patterns, cyclical trends, and structural changes in trade dynamics. Analyze price variations and their correlation with global market conditions Machine Learning-Based Forecasting: Develop predictive models to forecast future import/export volumes and values for critical minerals Implement time series forecasting techniques such as ARIMA, LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), or hybrid ARIMA-LSTM models. Generate short-term (6-12 months) and medium-term (2-3 years) forecasts Validate model performance using appropriate evaluation metrics (MAE, MAPE, RMSE, R² score) State-Level Mineral Extraction Mapping (Optional Advanced Component): Explore the feasibility of using GST data to identify state-level mineral extraction patterns. Cross-reference GST collections under mineral-specific HSN codes (Chapter 25-27) with known mineral-producing states. Analyze state-wise contribution to mineral production using available data from the Indian Bureau of Mines (IBM) and the Geological Survey of India (GSI). Note: Direct state-level extraction mapping from GST data alone may have limitations, as minerals extracted in one state are often processed or value-added in another state. Critical Mineral Mapping for India: Create a comprehensive mineral mapping framework that integrates: Current domestic reserves and production capacity Import dependency ratios by mineral Major source countries for imports Potential domestic exploration areas identified by GSI's 1,200 exploration projects. Strategic recommendations for reducing import dependence Expected Deliverables: Comprehensive Analysis Report containing: Historical EXIM trend analysis for Copper, Lithium, and Graphite. Identification of high-dependency minerals requiring urgent attention. ML model comparison and performance evaluation. Forecasts with confidence intervals for Copper, Lithium, and Graphite. Critical Mineral Mapping Dashboard featuring: Import dependency matrix by mineral State-wise production mapping (where feasible) Trade partner network analysis Forecasted demand-supply gaps Working MVP: A live, working MVP interface is required, enabling non-technical users to explore trends, run forecasts, and view statistical results with intuitive controls and filters. Data filters for mineral, time range, trade flow (import/export), country, port, and state (where available), etc. Toggle views for volumes, values, unit prices, and dependency ratios with dynamic charts and tables. Event Format: Round 1: Problem Statement Release Participants will receive the exact problem statement through Unstop. Teams must develop and submit their predictive model along with a brief report outlining their approach. Round 2: Mentor Assignment Top teams will be assigned a mentor to further refine their models. Round 3: Presentation Round Teams selected for round 2 will present their ideas in front of a panel of judges. Eligibility: Open to everyone across India. Participants can register in teams of 2–5 members. Cross-college teams are allowed. Rules & Regulations: Only one submission per team is allowed. Plagiarism or use of pre-built solutions is strictly prohibited. All codes and reports must be original and created during the event timeline. Any form of malpractice or breach of guidelines will result in disqualification. The decision of the organizing committee and judges will be final. Timeline: Problem Statement Release: 31st October Submission Deadline: Last Week of December Final Presentation (Offline/Online): First Week of February WhatsApp Group Link